Refraction (Bent Thinking) #89

Gambler’s Fallacy – when a person assumes that a departure from what occurs on average or in the long term will be corrected in the short term. Refutation: Statistics have no power. Odds cannot make anything happen. They can only predict… and they do not promise when they predict. Example –  Adeline: “Bennett, the doctor said there is only a 5% chance of Carrie living through the procedure, so let’s not risk it. Side Note: While doctors base their projections on past procedures and results, it is still possible that Carrie will come through fine. 

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1 Response to Refraction (Bent Thinking) #89

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