Refraction (Bent Thinking) #79

The Lottery Fallacy – Because the odds are against something happening, therefore it will not happen. Refutation: Seemingly improbable events do happen. Examples: People win the lottery twice, have three children years apart with the same birth date, or bump into old acquaintances on the other side of the world. To the people involved, such occurrences may seem providential, but it is worth remembering that with seven billion people in the world, the same thing could happen to a lot of people. The probability of a seemingly surprising coincidence, like winning the lottery twice, is actually quite high, if you mean anyone, anytime winning for a second time.