Refraction (Bent Thinking) #72

Black Swan Blindness – the argument that ignores low probability, high impact events, thus down playing the role of chance and under-representing known risks. Refutation: Unless you are speaking of generalizations, all probabilities need to be a part of the discussion. Example: Annabelle: “Boromir, the odds against Canada ever attacking the U.S. is so small that we don’t even need to discuss strengthening our northern borders.”